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Response of the Mediterranean Sea Surface Circulation at Various Global Warming Levels: A Multi-Model Approach

TitoloResponse of the Mediterranean Sea Surface Circulation at Various Global Warming Levels: A Multi-Model Approach
Tipo di pubblicazioneArticolo su Rivista peer-reviewed
Anno di Pubblicazione2024
AutoriParras-Berrocal, I.M., Waldman R., Sevault F., Somot S., Gonzalez N., Ahrens B., Anav A., Djurdjevic V., Gualdi S., Hamouda M.E., Li L., Lionello P., Sannino Gianmaria, and Sein D.V.
RivistaGeophysical Research Letters
Volume51
Type of ArticleArticle
ISSN00948276
Parole chiaveCirculation patterns, climate modeling, Coupled regional climate model, Environmental impact, Global warming, Global warming level, Med-CORDEX, Mediterranean Sea, Modeling approach, Multi-modelling, oceanic circulation, Regional climate, Regional climate modeling (RCM), sea surface, Sea surfaces, simulation, Surface circulation, Surface waters
Abstract

Changes in Mediterranean circulation patterns due to global warming may have strong socio-economic and environmental impacts. We analyze the future evolution of the Mediterranean surface circulation under different levels of global warming by using 28 multi-decadal simulations from a set of fully coupled and high-resolution regional climate models of the Med-CORDEX multi-model initiative. There is no model agreement for a significant basin-scale modification of the surface circulation. However significant and robust local circulation changes are identified. In particular, the circulation is expected to shift from cyclonic to predominantly anticyclonic in the northern Balearic, while a strengthening of the cyclonic circulation is expected in the southern Adriatic. Furthermore, our results show an increase in the Mediterranean circulation variability primarily associated with a general increase of meso-scale activity. Generally, we find a linear increase of the identified changes with global warming levels. © 2024. The Author(s).

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URLhttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85212780762&doi=10.1029%2f2024GL111695&partnerID=40&md5=bb05cda1f0ccb5307944076ea43cc3d6
DOI10.1029/2024GL111695
Citation KeyParras-Berrocal2024